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Iran's Got Her Eye on Iraq
Iran's Got Her Eye on Iraq
By Kennan Khatib
After nearly eight years of the Iraq War and over 4,000
deaths among U.S. troops, the abrupt end to military operations severely
mitigated the gains made following the surge in 2007.[1] While
the U.S. accomplished several goals including deposing Saddam, establishing a
semi-functional democracy, and eliminating the threat that Iraq posed to its
neighbors, Iran is bearing the fruits of America’s labor.
President George W. Bush’s aim of establishing a secular, pro-American democracy slowly crumbled with the election of Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki. America’s withdrawal made it even easier for Maliki to separate himself from America’s interests, most notably accepting aid from Iran and picking fights with Turkey.[2] While it is true that America’s relationship with the leadership in Iraq was always shifty, having boots on the ground actualized America’s investment in the future of Iraq and its people. The diplomatic mission in Iraq is strong with nearly 16,000 workers at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, but with al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) still active, albeit severely weakened, in its mission to incite sectarian violence between Shi’is and Sunnis (including the Kurds) paired with Muqtada al Sadr’s Mahdi Army, security remains a major issue.
Where does Iran fit in? The Middle East political debate can
usually be stripped down to Saudi Arabia and Iran’s fight for regional
dominance. With Syria on the brink of an all-out civil war, Iran has begun
planting seeds in the next best soil, Iraq. Under the rule of Bashar al Assad,
Syria served as a conduit for Iranian arms to Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in
Lebanon. If Assad does fall, you can count on Iran shifting its focus to Iraq,
which directly affects Saudi Arabia.
Iran exercising influence in Iraq hurts both American and
Iraqi interests. Iran only sees Iraq as an asset to pursue its own goal of
becoming a superpower in the Middle East. In order to achieve that goal, Iran
is willing to lend a helping hand to Iraq so long as Iraq’s military and
economy don’t transcend Iran’s. Iran also wants an Iraq with minimal American
influence, and more importantly an Iraq without a U.S. military presence. If
the U.S. ever finds itself at war with Iran, it would be much more difficult to
stage quick, decisive attacks on all fronts without bases in Iraq.
Don’t panic just yet. Here’s the catch: Iraq is fully aware
of Iran’s intentions. It is easy to overestimate the power of Shia solidarity
between the two countries, but the reality is that the countries are
historically, culturally, and ethnically at odds. The combination of the draining
Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) and the sole fact that Iraq is an Arab country and
Iran is not will pitch the countries against each other in the long run.
Despite the constant state of paranoia between the two countries, Iran is
significantly more diplomatically cunning from years of toying with the
international community on the issue of its ambiguous nuclear program. Long
story short, both countries will use each other in the immediate future, but
Iran will likely reap the benefits.
Putting boots back on the ground in Iraq is not an option,
but curbing Iranian influence in the region should be America’s priority.
First, America can strike a major blow to Iran by playing a more active role in
helping the Syrian opposition oust Bashar al Assad. Secondly, America needs to
continue to engage Iraq as much as possible in order to check Iran’s power on
Maliki. The key is to make sure that Iraq doesn’t become too indebted to Iran. Finally,
America needs to stop taking the easy way out. Invading Iraq without sound
post-Saddam plans significantly hurt the American mission and, consequently,
Iraqi citizens, making it extremely difficult to win the hearts and minds of the
Iraqi people.
With lessons learned from
Iraq (hopefully), the Obama administration successfully negotiated extending a
U.S. presence in Afghanistan for a decade after the original 2014 withdrawal
deadline.[3]
Keep in mind that Afghanistan shares a 582-mile border with Iran. In Baghdad,
on the other hand, The New York Times
reported that the State Department was planning to cut embassy staff by as much
as half, a depressingly clear message that America is losing influence in Iraq.[4]
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