Lunchtime Blotter: Romney Hearts the Donald

Apart from those poor Apprentice contestants, Mitt Romney might be the only person in America who takes Donald Trump seriously.  Particularly after his crusade to win the GOP nomination by proving that Barack Obama wasn't born in this country went up in flames around this time last year, with Obama releasing his long-form birth certificate and then utterly embarrassing Trump as he sat stone-faced in the audience at the White House Correspondents Dinner, it seemed as though most Americans who even care had dismissed Trump as the worthless fat gadfly he is.  

 

Except Mitt Romney.  While the Obama campaign sends out fundraising gimmicks to supporters like me advertising the chance to earn a trip to high dollar dinners with Obama and Bill Clinton, or George Clooney, the Romney team mimicked this tactic with its most marketable celebrity last week, offering supporters the chance to "Dine with the Donald."  Romney's bromance with Trump extends even further back to the dog days of the GOP primaries in February, when the former Massachusetts governor staged an elaborate ceremony to celebrate Trump's endorsement, capping it off by remarking wistfully that “there are some things that you just can’t imagine happening in your life. This is one of them.”  Note that this delight in the endorsement of a bombastic real estate magnate most famous for saying "you're fired!" on TV came during the height of Romney's attempts to endear himself to blue-collar Republican voters who viewed him suspiciously, which might be a curious decision if Romney didn't actually see something in the guy.  The question is, what?

CR Sports: Ads on Jerseys

The writers of Conflict Revolution are nothing if not well read, so it should come as no surprise that they each happened to come across the same, very interesting article on an idle lunch break last week.  What would come as more of a surprise is if they drew the same, very interesting conclusions.  See what happens as Matt and Steve talk ads on Americans sports jerseys (it could be a real thing) below:


Stephen: Matt, a friend sent me this link today:

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7929649/when-see-ads-american-jerseys

So I have a few questions for you:

1) What do you think about putting ads on sports jerseys?
2) Do you think this will happen?
3) Do you think it hasn't yet for the reasons he argues?

Matt: I read this article on my lunch break today, and I'm actually more curious what you think, as the more ardent free market advocate but also sports traditionalist (or so I thought).  To your questions - in reverse order:

3) Absolutely.  As Americans we love progress, but the flip side is that we cling to our last bastions of tradition, from the national parks to unadulterated sports jerseys.  I remember when the Spiderman 2 bases caused an uproar in baseball in 2004 and I think the sponsors-on-jerseys movement has a lot to get around before it becomes a reality. 

2) For the reasons I just outlined, I'm skeptical.  If it happens, though, it will probably be in the order the author suggested: the NBA doesn't care, the NHL just wants money/fans, and if ads on jerseys are successful in two of our four major sports, we'll see a domino effect in the other two. 

1) I respect the free market imperative, but I'm coming down on the side of tradition.  I mean, is nothing sacred?  Are we all consigned to a future no one really wants in this case, just because it will make some people a lot of money?  I understand that the latter point will probably tip the scales, but I think his argument about this "leveling the playing field" by cutting down on individual player endorsements is bullsh*t.  Level the playing field for who?  The teams?  The league, so it can be more about money?  Mark my words, the $300 mil annual figure that is cited by the author will never be seen by the fans.  You could argue that more revenue for teams would lower ticket prices, but I find that slightly absurd.  Realistically players will just demand more money and owners will just get richer.

Friday Morning: Not Barry Smooth

Anyone who has actually taken the time to look behind the caricature knows that former DC mayor turned DC city council member Marion Barry is a complex individual.  He is neither the arrogant, race-baiting, crack-addicted fool his detractors make him out to be (despite this), nor the civil rights hero and man of the people portrayed by his most ardent believers.  Probably the best take on Mr. Barry comes from this documentary, which tells the story of one of America's more well-known mayors with the level of nuance it deserves.

On to the good stuff though - yesterday, while doing damage control around his latest kerfuffle, Barry managed to cause another stir.  The whole thing initially started when, at his victory party after winning the April Democratic primary in his Ward, Barry said the following about Asian business owners in the city:

"We got to do something about these Asians coming in and opening up businesses and dirty shops," Barry said. "They ought to go. I'm going to say that right now. But we need African-American businesspeople to be able to take their places, too."

After first doubling down on his comments, and even tweeting a photo in an attempt to further his point, Barry got himself in more trouble by saying the following about Filipino nurses:

In fact, it's so bad, that if you go to the hospital now, you find a number of immigrants who are nurses, particularly from the Philippines. And no offense, but let's grow our own teachers, let's grow our own nurses -- and so that we don't have to be scrounging around in our community clinics and other kinds of places -- having to hire people from somewhere else.

As you might imagine, neither community was particularly happy about Barry's comments, and after a protracted war of attrition between Barry and the media, in which the former mayor accused reporters of trying to "divide the city" through their scrutiny, Barry finally organized a heartfelt press conference with local Asian business leaders yesterday to apologize.  In his apology, Barry tried to contextualize his latest controversy by alluding to other immigrant groups that labored to establish a foothold in America.  See if you can spot the racially insensitive comment:

"America has had racial tensions from the time it was founded," Barry said. "Italians coming here, the Irish came here, the Jews came here, the Polacks came here, the Chinese came here."

There's no word yet on whether or not Barry plans on consulting the city's Polish community on how to handle this most recent round of fallout.  Perhaps he'll tweet about it.  But if the absurd irony of Barry's "bender of racial insensitivity," as Univision's Jordan Fabian described it, has shown one thing, it's that the once high-riding (no pun intended) mayor of the nation's capital has officially lost the ability to get out of his own way.  At this point, following the 76 year-old Barry is like sitting through dinner with your grandparent who still thinks it's okay to say things that aren't okay to say (a friend of mine's grandmother once described sleeveless undershirts - also known irreverently as wife beaters - as "Italian dinner jackets").  You know they can't help it.  You just have to laugh, or something. 

Indeed, people will laugh at Barry's latest misstep and try and fit it once again into the aforementioned caricature of mayor-turned-crack-fiend-turned-federal prisoner-turned-mayor-turned-aging city council member on his way out, but yet again, it will ultimately be Barry who is laughing all the way to his next victory party in four years, if he chooses to run again.  Because while the chattering class might rightfully ridicule how seemingly absurd it is that this man still holds public office, most people fail to appreciate why exactly it is that he is able to get himself in and out of trouble so seamlessly. 

In college, I had the good fortune of attending a community meeting in a Baptist church east of the Anacostia River where Barry was present.  As the councilman for Ward 8, where the meeting was held, Barry was introduced before the meeting began, and the crowd stood on its feet and roared.  He received rock star-level approval.   I wondered - how can a guy who has screwed up so many times, raised and dashed so many hopes, still be given a hero's welcome, time and time again?  Do they cheer like that for Jack Evans over in Ward 2?  To be fair - far from every Ward 8 resident shares the same sentiments, as evidenced by the breadth, if not the depth, of Barry's opposition in this year's Democratic primary.  But it's clear that if nothing else, the former mayor has a special flair for tapping into something very personal on the part of the people he has represented in some capacity for 29 out of the last 37 years.  Granted, he has also betrayed the trust, time and again, of the very folks who have given him chance after chance.  But if, like your eccentric friend who can't quite get it together but who you can't quite cut loose, Barry can keep winning people over, you have to at least wonder how he somehow keeps doing it.

Maybe he should quit while he's still ahead, kind of.  But he won't, and won't have to, because at the end of the day, until someone else comes along that can articulate in as personal terms as Marion Barry why the former mayor has actually used the faith placed in him for his own selfish ends time and time again, while continuing to appeal for that faith on the grounds that he has been unfairly persecuted, even though he has been given every chance in the world and come up short every time, the Barry bender of con artistry will continue unabated.

Perhaps he's not such a complex individual after all. 

Tuesday Afternoon: ADHD Links

So unlike my typical narrative style links, I wanted to share with you today some links from a variety of different topics that I found interesting over the past few days. Here goes:

The New York Times wrote about how the paralyzed might not be permanently paralyzed for too much longer. I've heard of this technology before and studies where people were able to control computers with sensors plugged to their brains, but this is a huge step. This leap is for controlling robotic limbs with one's mind.

Then there's this in the super-progressive state of Florida: driverless cars are now hitting the road. Florida is just one of a few states that is allowed to test them so far.

But I also found out that wind turbines might not be as great savers of the environment as we thought...turns out that they are responsible for localized climate changes.

Then I read about how smart phones are changing the nature of our cultural spaces.

I also found this interesting about what tastes Chinese consumers have as they grow wealthier.

Finally, to keep up the tech theme here, this article from Forbes really hits the nail on the head as to why the Facebook IPO was such a flop.

Lastly, because I know if I don't post it Matt will twist the sh*t out of it, Dems are revolting against Obama's harshness towards capitalism and Bain; and Mark Cuban thinks the next bubble is in student debt.

Monday Afternoon Links: Europe is back in the Spotlight

Europe, once again, has taken over the spotlight. This time, it appears that "austerity" measures are extremely unpopular and will not be a pill swallowed by their respective populations. Instead, everyone will hope that the Germans will just man up and support them. Except the Germans most likely will not want to support the Greeks. Despite what many pundits are saying, its not because of fear of WWII/Hitler/Inflation, its because Germans are a nation of savers, and inflation would f*ck that all up. Basically, if they inflate their way out of it, they will be telling everyone its totally cool if they get blasted at the party and puke everywhere, Germany will be the responsible adult who doesn't get too drunk so they can clean up the mess.

However, the current situation in Greece/Europe is probably something we should pay attention to. I've written before why Prof. Krugman's analysis of the situation is slightly off base, and this is just another great reason why we should be watching out debt in the US (vs. the Professor's preferred method of just inflating our way to growth) - debt funded growth only exists as long as the government money keeps flowing; once our wise leaders turn off the tap (or are forced to as the Greeks were), the economy comes tumbling down. If you need more examples, just look to China. But, we also need to make sure we have real government cutbacks, because in Europe, that hasn't really been the case. Their "austerity" has been just higher taxes on the rich, and no new government spending. That probably hurts Prof. Krugman's case a bit more, huh? If higher taxes are adding additional pain to growth? But you don't have to take my word for it, just ask Obama's former Chief Economist, Christina Romer... she writes "Our estimates suggest that a tax increase of 1 percent of GDP reduces output over the next three years by 3 percent. The effect is highly significant" Ouch, maybe those pesky conservatives were on to something...

But hey, maybe this seems like fun and we'd like a try?

Happy Monday, and remember today is one of those days you're working for free (because the government is taking it for all the opportunities you were given, and a whole bunch of welfare)

Thursday Links: The Cult of Personality

As election season starts getting underway, we are now getting the good stuff on the Obama-Romney match-up. It makes me laugh when the Obama folks talk about how much Obama is in touch with the country, then scratch their heads at why he is so opposed. Maybe, he isn't really in touch with much of the country, and you aren't either?

Hump De Bump: Death Star Political Economy after the Jump

Exactly two weeks ago was May 4th, which is otherwise known as International Star Wars Day. As part of worldwide celebrations by geeky fanboys and girls everywhere dressed as Wookies, Boba Fett, or Princess Leia in a golden bikini (see: Adrianne Curry; then, if interested, bid on said golden bikini. America's First Next Top Model and Dork Goddess not included.)

But what really gets Star Wars into the prime-time for our Hump de Bump Wednesday special is this article from The Monkey Cage.org (The Week's 2010 Blog of the Year) on the Political Economy of Building and Using a Death Star. Really it was just an assessment of whether or not the construction of such a space-surfing, world/country-destroying apparatus would make any political sense in the intergalactic empire, or even in the geopolitical life and times we find ourselves in today.

The article was later featured in the Washington Post blog, proving that the Geek really shall inherit the earth. What set me off over it though, was the claim by some upstart Lehigh University students that: 

"just the steel for a Death Star would cost $852 quadrillion, or 13,000 times the current GDP of the Earth." 

Peko Set, a friend from a "think-tank kind of summer" I enjoyed a couple years back, listed the above estimate as his GChat status this past weekend, to which I protested :

11:58 AM 

me: they dont call it the intergalactic empire for nothing

  nearly all of known space was under their dominion at the end of the clone wars

11:59 AM including asteroid belts and other celestial bodies that could be entirely made of certain heavy elements

12:00 PM Peko: http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/05/04/death-star-no-thank-you/

12:04 PM me: haha

  very convincing arguments

 Peko:it's super long. got re-published in the wapo blog

 me: 

12:05 PM i dont think the lehigh people understand the economics of star wars though

  there's no way the empire needed to pay for steel or other building materials at cost

...A spirited discussion of Star Wars Economics, that had surprising parallels in the politics of dictatorship and crony capitalism in the real world, soon follows...

State of the Economy: Part II

Over the past several weeks, the writers of Conflict Revolution have been exchanging a series of emails on the state of the US economy.  This is Part II of an ongoing debate that seems to have some serious legs - see where it takes us, and share your own thoughts, below:

Also see: State of the Economy: Part I

Matt: Stephen, you've conceded that the stimulus created some jobs.  Are you accepting it as an Obama accomplishment?

Stephen: I’m not going to argue that spending does nothing, that’s a bit absurd. But let’s look at your math. The average of 3.6M, 1.97M, 2.1M and 1.5M is definitely not 3.9M… my numbers say its 2.29M – which I’ll still give you is significant. But, like I said above, all of these studies are done on economic models which basically assume that the inputs always work (which is how we get the saved number – the group is saying it should give us this, so if they didn’t really exist then they must just be saved jobs). So at best, we can say that these numbers are fuzzy; econometric models, which also have problems, think it was either entirely useless or helped about 2M jobs.  If your point was that the recession could have been worse, I’ll concede you the point. However, what I see as the real issue is effectiveness of the stimulus and if it’s actually helping to “stimulate” the economy. It seems to me like it was more of a Temprapetic bed than a Viagra.

Matt: On those numbers, you took the low baselines for all the analyses and I took the median, which seems fairer, and yields 3.9 million jobs created between 2009 and 2011.  Even if it was your number, I thought any job created was a good thing?  Either way, I'm not arguing that stimulus should fuel our economy forever.  In fact, if you were actually going to make an honest argument, you would acknowledge that the stimulus was only through 2010.  But the fact is, where else do you expect demand to come from in an economy where everyone is losing their job?  Give me a better answer than government stepping in to help out and maybe I'll consider it.

Monday, Monday: Links for 5/14/12

Happy belated Mother's Day to all the mamas out there.  Since very few of them are likely reading this blog, go ahead and pass along our best wishes to your mother, when you get the chance.  No, that wasn't a backhanded joke.  Here at Conflict Revolution, we're nothing if not genuine.

No one would ever confuse Monday with Sunday, glorious bastion of the fun day.  Still, here's hoping you got a little bit of rest last night, so that the 9:00 hour isn't treating you too terribly.  Or who knows, maybe you're just waking up.

Stephen has gone fishin' for the day (when your office is in Tampa, FL, you do business in weird places), so in a break from our normal routine, you get a left-leaning start to your work week.  Whether you're just getting to your desk, just waking up, or have no plans to do anything at all today, dive into some CR morning links to get your Monday started off right:

****
1) The New York Times explores our generation's big, ugly sleeping giant of student loan debt in an ongoing series.  Something should probably be done about this - but what?  ["A Generation Hobbled by the Soaring Cost of College," NYT, 5/12/12].

Also see: Should Higher Education Be Free? 

2) Liberal Catholic E.J. Dionne takes the Freedom From Religion Foundation to task for targeting liberal Catholics in a new ad, but reserves some harsh words for the conservative wing of the Church as well.  As a liberal, intermittent church-going Catholic myself, I can attest to often feeling like I'm stuck between an ecclesiastical rock (the Church's hard-line position on social issues) and an ideological hard place (the outright skepticism - if not open hostility - of many on the left toward organized religion).  Dionne navigates this contradiction well, showing that ultimately, neither side is well-served by constantly being at each other's throats... sadly, these sorts of narratives are beginning to sound depressingly familiar ["I'm not quitting the Church," Washington Post, 5/14/12].

Also see: Just When You Thought the Culture Wars Were Over...

3) Are billionaire dual citizens choosing to give up their US citizenship in order to avoid paying higher taxes?  Will this factor into a broader case for overall tax reform, or just convince more on the Right to advocate for deeper cuts on existing rates?  ["Facebook Co-Founder Saverin Gives Up U.S. Citizenship Before IPO," Bloomberg, 5/11/12].

4) Speaking of the Right, leading the House of Representatives into the ideological abyss wasn't enough for the Tea Party, so they've now got their sights set on the Senate ["For Tea Party, Focus Turns to Senate and Shake-Up," NYT, 5/13/12].

5) Finally, the latest presidential tracking polls continue to show a close race - Rasmussen has Romney with 48% of the vote to Obama's 44%, while Gallup shows Obama with a 1 point advantage (46% - 45%) [Real Clear Politics Poll Average, 5/12/12].

Pop, lock and drop Conflict Revolution into your Bookmarks Toolbar for more updates later in the day, when we'll post Part II of Stephen's and my ongoing debate on the current state of the U.S. economy.

Stay dry out there, folks.

Email Debate: State of the Economy, Part I

It's election season, and one guy is running for re-election, which means this isn't the first, and will likely be far from the last time you read the words, "are you better off than you were four years ago?"  Still, as amateur members of the American punditocracy, Stephen and I could not suppress the urge to fire the first shots.  Here's Conflict Revolution on the State of the Economy (Part I):

Stephen: Hey Matt, do you think the economy is better today than it was 4 years ago?

Matt: Well, considering that in late April 2008 the global financial system was about four months away from near collapse, the auto industry was about to die, and American households were as debt-saddled and overleveraged as ever... yes, yes I do.  State your claim to the contrary. 

Stephen: Let's start with GDP, since that's the only thing that has really gone up. GDP has risen by an unimpressive $235.6B, which is a total of 1.8% or 0.4% annually. Let's ignore the fact that people have been expecting the US economy to take off now for 3 years (I won't say it has no chance this year, just that its a heavy underdog). Now, I'm sure you are familiar with how GDP is calculated, GDP = C+I+G+(X-M). That G piece (government) has increased by 681.2B. So we can see where the new growth is coming from right? And after three years, it's still unimpressive. At what point do we say this is the problem and not the solution? (But let's try to stay off that for now, that's an entirely different debate)

Unemployment - the unemployment rate is at 8.1%, up from 5%. But that probably doesn't tell the whole story since labor force participation is constantly declining... look at the U-6 rate (unemployed/underemployed/"marginally attached workers" aka people who dropped out of the labor force but want a job) and that's up to 14.5% from 9.2%.  Total payrolls are down 5.9% as well.

Should we get into household income or housing? They are both down, housing by as much as 50%. Or how about the S&P 500, which is generally used a gauge of American business performance? Its down about 10% still from its 2007 highs and just about equal with its 2008 high. Oh and did I mention that QE1, 2 and Operation Twist have managed to push the money supply into stupid levels? Or that inflation has increased by 7% since Obama took office (I understand these is totally normally inflation rates, but it puts into perspective how bad things are since NOTHING else is increasing so rapidly).

Friday Update: Links for 5/11/12

Its been a relatively eventful week in the news, with opposition politics on the march in Europe, former playboy models upstaging Mexican presidential debates, and our own president declaring his support for gay marriage here in America.  Here at Conflict Revolution, we'll cap it off for you with a roundup of what's on our reading lists this Friday morning:

1) The unemployment rate would be a full percentage point lower today (7.1%) if not for cuts to government at the federal, state, and local level since the recession took hold ["Unemployment Rate Without Government Cuts: 7.1%," Wall Street Journal, 5/8/12].

2) Meanwhile, the economy has added 4.2 private sector jobs since the official end of the recession in June 2009, but government payrolls, including for police officers, teachers, and firefighters, have fallen by over 600,000 during that time ["CHART: Economy Has Recovered All Private Sector Jobs Lost Since Obama Took Office," Think Progress, 5/4/12].

3) Even the Wall Street Journal admits those cuts have held back the economy recovery ["Depth of Recession Makes Recovery Look Worse," WSJ, 5/4/12].

4) But that won't stop the Washington Times from arguing its all Obama's fault ["Desperately avoiding Obamanomics and Obamacare," Washington Times, 5/8/12].

5) If the presidential nominee of your party tries to reverse his position on a decision that he blatantly opposed at the time, that probably means it worked, right?  Mitt Romney tries to take credit for the auto bailout ["Romney taking credit for auto industry success," US News, 5/7/12].

6) Lastly, conservatives really want you to care about this, but it probably says more about West Virginia than it does our sitting president.  Sorry, John Denver ["Ouch! Obama loses 41 percent of W. Va. vote to federal inmate," CS Monitor, 5/9/12].



Be sure to stay tuned later today for Part I of our most recent email debate on the state of the economy since President Obama took office, along with a recap of what went on the blog this week. 

Happy Friday, folks!

Obama Supports Marriage Equality - What's Next?

In case you missed it, the big news from yesterday was Barack Obama coming out in support same-sex marriage.  Regardless of how you personally feel about the president or even about the issue overall, it is hard to deny the significance of a sitting president declaring his support for a historic expansion of civil rights.  I for one, feel similar to how I felt when Don't Ask, Don't Tell finally got repealed: truly proud to be an American, and not only because this is a watershed moment for liberals.  Proud because any time our country does itself one better in terms of actually living up to our lofty ideals, it should be something to celebrate.

 

Of course, the president's backing won't actually extend full marriage rights to any one single person currently lacking them.  It is merely a statement of support.  And it will be interesting to see what actions might follow this announcement.  Obama tempered his words by noting that while he supports gay marriage personally, he continues to believe that states should decide the issue.  And with the GOP in control of the House, any legislative activity will indeed have to come from the ground up, as it has since Massachusetts became the first state to legalize same-sex marriage in 2004. 

Still, it matters what presidents say.  This one just set the tone for his entire administration, the entire federal government, and the future platform of his political party by coming down on the side of the civil rights pioneers.

Email Debate: The Gold Standard

After Stephen bought his first pair of gold teeth, the writers of Conflict Revolution felt compelled to consider whether or not it's a good thing that while the shiny metal now supports his two front teeth, it no longer backs our country's currency.  An enlightening email debate ensued. 

Stephen: Thoughts on the gold standard? Maybe we could have that as another email debate.

Matt: Really Stephen?  The Gold Standard?  Excuse me while I go for a drive in my Model T and then look at pictures of my girlfriend baring her ankle.  

Stephen: Matt, can you explain to me why fiat currency is a good idea? I know the argument for, but do you?

Matt: It's a good idea because monetary policy is one of the most effective tools for ameliorating the volatility of boom and bust cycles and insuring long-term economic stability.  There is only so much gold in the world.  Meanwhile, there are nearly twice as many people as when we abandoned the last vestiges of the gold standard in 1971.  An ever-growing global economy requires a flexible supply of money.  

Stephen: What if it turned out that the federal reserves mismanagement of fiscal policy lead to the biggest boom/busts in US history? (The great depression and great recession? And for for good measure lets consider their actions in the 70s during stagflation). Please explain how currency manipulation creates stability?

Hump de Bump: The Trashy and The Classy

Good afternoon, readers on the hump of the week:

We here at Conflict Revolution were thinking of changing, or at least attempting to change, the subject of our discussions from Socialism to Capitalism - beginning a "Critique of Pure Capitalism" if you will. 

Instead, I'm going to post some barely SFW links and videos which involve massive cleavage and incredible hair. Welcome to: The Trashy and the Classy, comparing images of women in political news today. 

It's a tale of two Julias; a Tale of Two Cities of sorts, except you swap the first letter of Tale with the beginning consonant of Cities. 

Exhibit A: A woman who has received international attention, winning the hearts and minds of the Mexican people

Ms. Julia Orayen, former Playboy Playmate and sometimes TV show messenger girl of 17 seconds

Exhibit B: A woman who has received international attention, winning the hearts and minds of the Ukrainian people

  

Mrs. Yulia Tymoshenko, former Prime Minister of Ukraine and hero of the country's democratic "Orange Revolution" [NYT]

Compare and Contrast:

Ms. Orayen enters the public arena (?) as...well, just see for yourself:



Clearly the Mexican Presidential debates are more interesting than our own - gotta give Telemundo credit where such credit is due.

Mrs. Tymo, though having been the leader of a freakin' country in the former Soviet Union, is now serving some combination of jail time in the Ukraine, imprisoned (and wrongly accused, many human rights activist groups claim) under nebulous indictments of corruption by other political factions.

Both Julia/Yulia get the same amount of airtime. Discuss. 

Does "Anti-Incumbency" Make Any Sense?

In his daily links yesterday (we just can't seem to get off the subject of socialism, can we?), Stephen highlighted the most recent news out of France, where opposition candidate Francois Hollande defeated outgoing French President Nicholas Sarkozy in a runoff election this weekend.  Hollande's victory, in addition to parliamentary elections in Greece that saw the rejection of both major parties, were spun by the media as a sign of a vast, anti-incumbent wave beginning to sweep Europe, and Stephen, citing the latest Gallup Poll results (Obama 47/Romney 45 in a poll of 12 swing states), wondered aloud whether that wave could hit home in time to make Willard Mitt Romney our next president in November.

Of course, the irony to the "anti-incumbency" argument is that the very same austerity policies voters just rejected in Europe are the policies that Romney, together with a House GOP majority that is probably safe, would be compelled to pursue should Barack Obama himself fall prey to anti-incumbent sentiment in November. 

Pages of pixellated and non-pixellated ink alike have been spilled over whether voters always understand the implications of their decisions, especially in America, where our two-party system lends credence to the visceral sense that if things aren't going as well as we would like under one guy, we should give the other guy a chance.  This might make sense on a gut level, but any glance across the pond at Europe tells us it would be a disaster if anti-incumbency wins the day here in America.

Monday: Because You Wish You Were Just Waking Up

Hope everyone enjoyed their Cinco de Mayo, perhaps if Global Warming is really occurring as fast as Matt thinks, then in a few you years you can all enjoy it at the beach like I did.

1- The weekend saw some extremism develop in Europe as a socialist will replace Nicholas Sarkozy in France and anti-austerity parties won in Greece... including the neo-Nazis? Yep, the neo-Nazis will get their first seats in the Greek Parliament since the end of the country's military junta...

2- The markets didn't seem to like this news, and the Euro tanked.

3- France's wealthy also don't seem excited about their new socialist leader, and are looking to flee to England. It could be his open disdain for the rich, and finance...

4- Germany also doesn't seem too pumped by all this socialism and is already warning that EU fiscal policies, which were largely rejected at the polls this weekend, cannot be renegotiated. I guess someone has to be the adult here.

5- Finally, this weekend's anti-incumbent sentiment might be coming back to the US. The most recent Gallup poll shows it will be a close one. I guess the US has to decide if it wants to be France or Germany.

Week in Review: Occupy US, Baby

From Guy Fawkes to bin Laden, from Obama to the Titanic, Tommy, Iraq, and the burning
Übermensch, we've covered a lot of ground this week on Conflict Revolution. Don't miss a beat in our weekly countdown:

****
1) Matt raises the roof on D.C.'s building height ordinances. Is building skyscrapers (or even just above the 20th floor) just about real estate developer greed? Or is the character of the city itself at stake?

2) Speaking of capitalist hubris - and no, I'm not at even at the May Day socialist posts yet - would you like to take a voyage on the new Titanic?

3) We enter the complex and conflicted world of the Middle East with Kennan K. as our guide, as he breaks down Iraq's tenuous present and future dilemmas vis-a-vis Iran and the rest of the region like a boss;

4) Phil rambles about the unlikely but politically feasible alliance between socialism and anarchy as the Occupy Wall Street movement prepares itself for an "American Spring (& Summer)"

5) The man, it burns! The Burning man and his furry friends;

6) Matt likewise burns some straw men over why we should continue to support American space exploration;

7) And he also burns some Caps fans for leaving the Verizon Center too soon.

8) Tommy's inaugural Take (TiT?) blasts off into cyberspace - believe us when we say, now there will be blood

9) Das Übermensch Brett Aho cometh: "Not everyone needs to go to college...Fraulein."

10) And last but definitely not least, the crown jewel of Conflict Revolution itself, the master-debaters Stephen and Matt:

OSAMA BIN OCCUPIED PART 1: WILL OWS SURVIVE??

OSAMA BIN OCCUPIED PART 2: OBAMA CAN HAZ CREDIT??

MAY THE 4TH BE WITH YOU!

Friday Links: Economic Magicians and Real Ones

An economic inequality-themed morning update to dampen your naturally perked up spirits this Friday morning, lest you be in too good of a mood before the weekend has really begun (you've still got 8 more hours).  In sports, they call that regressing to the mean.  Here at Conflict Revolution, we're just mean.

Steve and I are getting ready to debate this topic in the near future.  We've just been waiting for an opening, and with the return of Occupy Wall Street, not to mention the informal kickoff of a general election campaign involving a former private equity executive that happens to be a multi-millionaire, it may be time.  So stay tuned, readers.  All eight of you are in for a real payoff in the near future.

Here's what's on our desktops, laptops, iPads, and iPhones right now:

1) Ed Conard, a former Romney partner at Bain Capital, says that inequality makes the economy more efficient and helps us all out in the long run... and points to a soda can as evidence.  Some fascinating back and forth here between the subject and author - though I must say, in addition to my general disagreements with his thinking, I too found Conard's economic philosophy to be disturbingly indicative of a worldview where none of us are worth anything unless we make boatloads of money.  Hat tip to CR reader Mario Arthur-Bentil for the link ["The Purpose of Spectacular Wealth, According to a Spectacularly Wealthy Guy," The New York Times Magazine, 5/1/12]. 

2) Former Clinton Labor Secretary Robert Reich makes a counterpoint as well as anyone, and marks the occasion of the Dow Jones returning to its 2007 high by noting that the ratio of total income going to capital (investors) rather than labor (workers) is at its highest level since the 1920s.  I'd like to see him and Ed Conard debate ["The Tinder-Box Society," Huffington Post, 5/1/12]

3) On a related note, why tax cuts won't jolt the economy ["Tax Cuts and Job Growth: They're Just Not That Into Each Other," Huffington Post, 5/2/12]

4) And on an unrelated one, even I'm not going to deny that this doesn't look good.  Magicians?  Really NOAA?  ["NOAA pulls ad seeking magician for training event," CNN.com, 5/3/12]

5) Finally, if you're a recent college grad, and you live in DC, there's a good chance you work at one - they have names like the American Society for Surgery of the Hand, and they are the country's professional associations.  Really interesting take, I think, on how a lot of these membership organizations find themselves at a crossroads between being creators and curators, and the implication that holds for the future of managing digital overload ["The Secret Power of Associations - Revealed," Forbes, 4/29/12]. 

W.H. Auden once said that "a false enchantment can last a lifetime," so if you're a returning visitor to Conflict Revolution, we've got you good!  Enjoy your Fridays, folks.  Keep your browsers dialed for this week's roundup later in the day, only at the one and the only. 

Email Discussion: Osama bin Occupied, Part II

Yesterday, Conflict Revolution began to explore the media convergence between the Occupy Movement's spring coming-back-out party and the one-year anniversary of Osama bin Laden's death.  After Stephen slung a few insults in the direction of OWS, and Matt expressed his disappointment in the movement's outcomes thus far, we're at it again this afternoon, this time exploring the other side of the week's big news in a discussion on how much credit Barack Obama should get for the killing of the fallen al-Qaeda leader. Without further adieu: 

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Stephen: Matt, we always hear about how the economy wasn't Obama's fault and that he inherited it from Bush. The wars the same thing. If you believe there is credence in this (and I'd agree) should he not also give credit to Bush for laying the groundwork for killing Osama bin Laden? This seems necessary unless you have some evidence that Obama tossed out all the intelligence gathered before his term.

Matt: Absolutely, Barack Obama does not get full credit for the raid.  For one, he didn't crash land any helicopters or charge up any stairs to shoot the world's most wanted terrorist in the head.  And a lot of that intelligence was in fact gathered during the later Bush years.  However, since it WAS Obama who came into office ordering his national security team to re-focus on bin Laden after the effort had stalled, and since it was Obama who ordered the raid itself over the advice of his Vice President and top general (not saying Bush wouldn't have, but BHO did), he certainly gets to take his share of the credit, especially if holding it up as an example of gutsy national security leadership under pressure.  

Stephen: So how often does he mention this? Because he definitely mentions that Bush was responsible for the economy all the time.

Guest Post: Searching for the Übermensch in Universal Post-Secondary Education

From the ashes of civilization, the Philosophers will emerge from their forest hermitages and subsequently inherit the earth. Here is such a philosopher, hailing from Bremerton, Washington, and bringing with him musings inspired by the wild and wonderful Pacific Northwest. Please welcome Brett Aho, today's guest author and author of the blog "Searching for the Übermensch," who will be contributing philosophical insights to CR from time to time. Today's entry is cross-blogged to Conflict Revolution from http://brettaho.blogspot.com.

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UNIVERSAL POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION
By Brett Aho

One of the unfortunate phenomena of partisan politics is the manifestation of a blanket of deference one weaves for any set of ideals espoused by a certain party or politician. A shining example of this came in the past month, when the well-polarized Senator Rick Santorum made comments to a crowd about college education.

“President Obama has said he wants everybody in America to go to college. What a snob… There are good, decent men and women who go out and work hard every day, and put their skills to test, who aren't taught by some liberal college professor (who) tries to indoctrinate them. I understand why he wants you to go to college. He wants to remake you in his image. I want to create jobs so people can remake their children into their image, not his."

If you can untangle the basic gist of his statement from the jungle of populist conservative positioning, you will see that he’s simply stating, “not everybody needs to go to college”, which in itself is not an entirely unreasonable statement to make. Unlike most severely conservative viewpoints, it actually raises a topic worthy of debate.

Links for Lunch: Thursday Edition

Stephen and I have several debates brewing right now.  It's actually been kind of a joy, exchanging occasionally mean-spirited messages with a friend thousands of miles away while I step away briefly from whatever it is I'm supposed to be doing instead.  Very Mean Girls, if you get where I'm going.  Stephen's even got a burn book, but he only writes about me.

 
Just know this: when we unleash these debates from the shackles of their cyberspace cages, the ripples will cascade down the information superhighway like a torrent of toxic chemicals.  That may not seem like an appealing analogy to you, but my worthy debating opponent - and his preferred presidential candidate - definitely likes it when people (corporations are people, my friend!) spill toxic chemicals just about anywhere, so you can surely bet that he'll be in support.

In the meantime, here's some links to tide you over while we fine-tune our latest snark:

1) Slate examines the possible consequences of a possible cyberattack.  I wrote a paper about this once, but I think I came to a far more ominous conclusion ["How Dangerous is a Cyberattack?" Slate, 4/27/12].

2) The Basketball Franchise Formerly Known As The New Jersey Nets makes their move to Brooklyn official ["Brooklyn Nets unveil logos," ESPN, 4/30/12]

3) Obama beats his chest over Osama, and then makes a surprise visit to Afghanistan to share the high fives with Hamid Karzai ["Obama makes surprise visit to Afghanistan to sign key pact, mark bin Laden raid," Washington Post, 5/1/12]

4) Speaking of bin Laden's bad day, why Republicans are the last political party with any credibility to criticize the President for politicizing national security.  Did these guys forget they had a 2004 nominating convention?  ["How the GOP Became a Party of Whiners Over Osama," The Daily Beast, 5/1/12]

Stay with us throughout the day for the second leg of Osama bin Occupied, and some philosophy to your dome from a loyal Conflict Revolution reader who likes to write about this stuff.  Go eat lunch outside on this lovely Thursday... and then come back to your favorite blog, for some mid-afternoon delight.

Over and out.

CR Sports: WTF, Caps Fans?!?

Fans of the Washington Capitals are recovering from hockey heartbreak this morning, after the Caps lost in TRIPLE overtime to the New York Rangers last night.  I had the good fortune of watching this game in a bar just outside the Verizon Center arena here in DC, where the Caps play their home games, and while hockey isn't really my sport, given my New York roots I can't say I'm so disappointed in the outcome.

The whole Caps thing down here is pretty interesting.  Hockey is a legitimately big deal.  You can always tell when its Caps game day, because the Washington Metro will be decked out with people dressed in the team's signature red jerseys.  In a sport that only recently got all of its playoff games televised again, competing in a major US market with three other professional sports franchises, including the unfortunate but dearly beloved Washington Redskins, this is no small feat.

Email Discussion: Osama bin Occupied, Part I

Yesterday was a very interesting news day, as the one-year anniversary of Osama bin Laden's death competed for attention with International Worker's Day 2012, sought after by the Occupy Movement as a jumping off point for its grand re-entry into the American political discussion.  In honor of both Socialist Christmas (in the indomitable Stephen Siena's words) and the SEAL team that killed bin Laden, Mr. Siena and I exchanged some brief barbs on both topics.  Stay tuned tomorrow for some back and forth on the killing of Osama... in the meantime, our thoughts on Occupy, below:

Stephen: Matt, do you think Occupy Wall Street will become relevant again and more importantly for the election?

Matt: I hope the message carries forward into the general election, but I also fear that the messengers have discredited themselves.  At a certain point with Occupy, the message got overshadowed by the shenanigans, and I think that's really unfortunate, because the initial protests, while lacking specificity, tapped into something among the broader American public that has been lingering under the surface for quite some time. It's not just income inequality, either.  It's the broader sense that the game is rigged, and those with disproportionate amounts of wealth and power are finding it easier than ever to write the rules to their advantage. As I said, however, rather than successfully channeling this frustration, as the movement did at its outset, 'Occupy' has become more synonymous with outlandish behavior than it has with any tangible message.  It's become a caricature of itself and I think that's a real shame.

Stephen: So your answer was that it would not play a role? (Though you seem to leave open the possibility that the sentiment could). I agree with this. However do you think that they could have created the same spirit and been true it while professing an organized structure?

Man vs. Straw Man: Space Exploration

Stay tuned for an email discussion on the Occupy movement in the 5:00 hour.  In the meantime, some reaction to this, from Reuters: "'Tens of billions' of habitable worlds in Milky Way," 3/28/12

Space. I've written about it before, and it fascinates at least one of your writers here at Conflict Revolution.  It seems we come across one of these stories every few months or so - astronomers complete a new set of research, we find out something about our own galaxy or another, far away one that we didn't previously know, it increases the likelihood that we will one day find life somewhere in the cosmos.  The space-inclined among us get a little more excited.  Carl Sagan does the opposite of turning over in his grave.  And yet still, with each revolution of the research cycle, not to mention our own planetary merry go-round that we call a year, the mystery looms: Is there anyone else out there?

Is there?

That's an open question, and we may never know.  I'll tell you once thing I do know, however.  My venerable army of straw men, the Washington Generals of editorializing, preservers and protectors of my favorite rhetorical device, is right here, right now, on Conflict Revolution, to serve up counter-arguments for me to deconstruct.  The Straw Men are always ready with a seemingly valid point to be considered... and swiftly batted down.

Steve's Jobs: Open Positions at the Council on Foreign Relations

Looking for a great job in international affairs research and journalism?

The Council on Foreign Relations, publishers of the venerable Foreign Affairs magazine, is hiring for multiple positions in its New York and D.C. offices:

Over the summer, we at CR will be putting together a calendar of events, career fairs, speeches, and more in the D.C. area for the convenience of our readers. This "District Events Calendar" will be available only to readers who take the effort to "Like" our site on Facebook, or follow us on Twitter. In the meantime, we'll be posting D.C.-area job openings that we feel our readers would be very interested in, so please be sure to visit us early and often!

Breaking: In Case Anyone Needs Tickets to Burning Man...

You should probably call this guy...

Disclaimer: it's unclear whether you're getting an actual lamb, or its dismembered, meaty remains.  In case you're actually interested: http://sfbay.craigslist.org/sfc/tix/2978791723.html).

Don't say Conflict Revolution never did anything for your social life.  Hat tip to CR reader and NorCal resident Sameer Thanawala for the link. 

Tommy's Take: The Beginning

Andy Rooney might be dead (RIP), but his spirit lives on in Conflict Revolution's new resident cultural commentator, knowledge purveyor, and peanut gallery season ticket holder Thomas J. Devine.  Tommy's Take will be a new feature here at CR, appearing on a regular basis to enrich your weekday existence with some straight up insight.  And if knowledge does in fact = power, the fact that it's Wednesday and you're reading our blog instead of getting any work done should be no concern at all.  Your mind may well be blown already, but if it isn't, here's Tommy/Tom/Thomas with a better introduction to his column than I could ever possibly muster:

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There are an incredible amount of blogs on the internet. I’d give you an exact number, but I looked it up and couldn’t find one. Between Tumblr and WordPress, the two most accessible and popular blog hosting services, there are at least one hundred million. Everybody wants to be Editor-in-Chief of their own digital universe.

Conflict Revolution is a tiny drop in a massive sea of blogs in the colossal ocean of the internet. But I’d
be willing to bet that in terms of its unique insight, quality of writing, and personality, this blog ranks somewhere in the top 50 million.

Suffice to say I was floored when I was asked to contribute a weekly column to one of the best blogs
on the internet, especially because I’ve been an ardent supporter of Conflict Revolution from day one. I
was present for the real-life, person to person debates that predated this blog. At times I was an active
participant, other times I looked like a spectator at an ugly and discordant tennis match. I’m glad that
Matt and Steve finally have a structured place to explore in depth their differences of opinion.

My column will touch on policy and politics, but I’ll leave the bulk of the issue analysis to Matt and
Steve. Instead, you can expect a smattering of human interest, art and culture, business, Andy Rooney-esque commentary, and musings on societal trends that I think say something interesting about the human condition.

So here I join the league of internet commentators. The grand Opiners of Opinions. The Pop Culture
Pontificates. Savants of the Soapbox. They-Who-Have-Something-To-Say. You get the point. I won’t
make the mistake, as so many people do today, of inflating the importance of my ideas just because I
have a forum. I keep in mind the advice Jean Sibelius gave to a young composer who felt dejected after a negative review: “Always remember, there is no city in the world which has erected a statue to a critic.” After all, this blog is only one of a hundred million.

-Tommy

Hump de Bump: Wednesday Links After the Jump

As we hurtle into the middle of the week, it's time for another morning update - this one, Politico-themed:

- President Obama made a "surprise visit" to troops and Afghan leadership yesterday in Kabul, pledging to abide by existing plans for a full withdrawal of U.S. troops in Afghanistan by 2014. NATO troops will stay in the country for at least a decade after 2014, ensuring that some U.S. presence in the region will remain [Politico; CNN].

- Ric Grenell, Foreign Policy spokesman for Mitt Romney's campaign, has resigned over "personal issues"

- Think you've seen it all before? Think again: Congress is getting even more bipartisan and split along the "core ideologies" of both parties. But does this necessarily preclude passing critical legislation?

Speaking of seen it all...Anyone familiar with The Burning Man festival?



one of the tamer images that come up in a search. He will be burning.


We've been speaking of anarchy for the past day, and The Burning Man is like the anarchist's Mecca - "radical inclusion," "decommodification," "radical self-expression" are the order of the day, but now the festival's organizers and lobbyists have descended upon the Capitol (as in D.C., not Hunger Games) to promote the event. The festival has been placed on probation this year by the Bureau of Land Management for exceeding its 53,000 capacity limit, but hopes to expand to 70,000 in the future.

The festival has captured the imagination of popular culture along with the likes of DayGlow, Warped Tour, Coachella et. al., but still retains its original indie vibe and distinctive character. In fact, long-time "burners" would probably regurgitate at my comparison of TBM with the aforementioned festivals.

- New York Times readership up, Washington Post not so lucky - although at less than a million online subscribers, the NYT can hardly be compared with the dedicated userbases of the social networking giants. I wonder how much the "Social Reader" app can help or harm the struggling journalism industry in general?

- Politico's Roger Simon: Stay outraged at the Supreme Court's (SCOTUS) blatant partisanship

- And finally, more of our favorite Secretary of State: Hillary sends rejection letter to Jason Segal

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OWS: Socialist Anarchy, or Anarchistic Socialism?

RE: Socialism and the state of the Occupy Wall Street movement as of May Day [WaPo], it strikes me (no pun intended) as extremely ironic that the "anti-institutional" core beliefs of a movement, which invokes "V for Vendetta" and Guy Fawkes-inspired images of anarchy at every turn, would suddenly throw its weight behind a socialist message - the most naturally institutional cause of all, as an artificially-induced redistribution of capital. Indeed, besides the effects of winter and getting kicked out of protest spaces by law enforcement, OWS failed to capitalize on any meaningful policy gains despite international media attention because it lacked centralized leadership or central figures around which the movement could coordinate and focus its impact.

http://boston1775.blogspot.com/2011/11/new-political-meaning-for-guy-fawkess.html

The idea of no centralized leadership and the destruction of institutions is so fundamental to anarchy that it stands in complete conflict with any idea of an institutionalized social compact between the state and its people, and history shows that the possibility of an alliance between anarchism and socialism is logically impossible. Yet as Stephen has already alluded in his morning update, political socialism is once again on the march around the world and in the United States, even if many social welfare policies are precisely what have bankrupted Europe and sent America spiraling into debt. It's also what is most politically feasible [WaPo] given the harshness of existing economic conditions and future austerity measures: In a world with zero or negative growth and stagnating employment, capitalism quickly loses its luster. 

Hit the jump to read more on how OWS can revive itself in 2012...

Guest Post: Iraq, Five Months Later

Five months after the last American soldiers left Iraq, the country remains at a crossroads.  This post comes to us from Kennan Khatib, a fellow Georgetown grad and currently a Critical Threats Specialist with the DC-based American Enterprise Institute.  Given Kennan's intricate knowledge of Middle Eastern affairs and foreign policy, we asked him to comment on the state of the fledgling Iraqi democracy, and how Iran factors into the situation. 

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Iran's Got Her Eye on Iraq

By Kennan Khatib 

After nearly eight years of the Iraq War and over 4,000 deaths among U.S. troops, the abrupt end to military operations severely mitigated the gains made following the surge in 2007.[1] While the U.S. accomplished several goals including deposing Saddam, establishing a semi-functional democracy, and eliminating the threat that Iraq posed to its neighbors, Iran is bearing the fruits of America’s labor.

President George W. Bush’s aim of establishing a secular, pro-American democracy slowly crumbled with the election of Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki. America’s withdrawal made it even easier for Maliki to separate himself from America’s interests, most notably accepting aid from Iran and picking fights with Turkey.[2] While it is true that America’s relationship with the leadership in Iraq was always shifty, having boots on the ground actualized America’s investment in the future of Iraq and its people. The diplomatic mission in Iraq is strong with nearly 16,000 workers at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, but with al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) still active, albeit severely weakened, in its mission to incite sectarian violence between Shi’is and Sunnis (including the Kurds) paired with Muqtada al Sadr’s Mahdi Army, security remains a major issue.

Cruise Mentality: Australian to Build Titanic Replica

In the latest news from the world's other hemisphere, an Australian mining mogul has confirmed plans to build an actual replica of the Titanic.  Creatively named Titanic II, the boat will boast the exact same dimensions as the original Titanic, right down to the vessel's four iconic smokestacks (which will be only for decoration).  In addition to "the latest navigation and safety systems," per Mr. Clive Palmer, the project's benefactor, the boat will also retain many of the other luxury amenities, such as gymnasiums, swimming pools, and lush dining and gathering areas, that made the ill-fated steamer a legend in its own time.  At least this one won't have to worry about icebergs.

In all seriousness, though, as someone who nerded out hardcore on Titanic children's history books when I was a kid, I couldn't be any more excited about this... and I'm hopeful that the boat's 2016 launch date will allow me to save my pennies accordingly, if not for the first voyage.  God I'm on fire today. 

What's more interesting, though, is that while the original Titanic was unprecedented in terms of both its size and its frills, it's offspring, or whatever we should call this, will be competing with those behemoth upmarket cruise ships that are bigger and can offer more space and amenities.  This is not to insult the experience offered by luxury cruiseliners; as a former Carnival patron myself, I can attest that many of these cruises do their best to accurately reflect the famous Hooters tag: "Delightfully tacky, yet unrefined."  Still, rather than standing at the cutting edge of transportation and innovation, the new boat will be more of a novelty act. 

An interesting turnabout, but in an age where sports teams wear throwback jerseys and young 20-somethings listen to the same music as their parents, I think it's a brilliant move.  Also, is it just me, or has Conflict Revolution been awash in Titanic references recently?  There was no pun originally intended there, but we'll gladly accept it.  Either way, it's clear that this blog has become... unsinkable.  Consider us jinxed. 

["Titanic to sail again?  Australian billionaire vows to build high-tech replica," NY Daily News, 4/30/12]

Morning Links: May Day (International Workers’ Day): the Socialist’s Christmas

For those of you were were not history majors or somehow got here and know nothing about socialism (if you got here knowing Matt, this seems highly unlikely) here's some info on May Day (International Workers’ Day). 

Since today is May Day, let’s do a socialist themed morning update.