The Next Bubble

Its been so long since last we... okay, I'll stop.  But seriously, as our three readers know, its been awhile since I've taken the time to put together something substantive for the blog.  Thank goodness for Conflict Revolution's new writers, or Stephen and I might owe more in child support to this whole enterprise than a certain former elected official does to his love child. 

Guess again!

Which brings me to the point about welcoming the new writers I mentioned.  We are happy to benefit from the outstanding contributions of Elaine Chen, who will be helping us with morning updates and assorted other posts, and Nadia Sheikh, who has kindly offered to cross post some content from her excellent blog Nadia in Pakistan.  Thanks Nadia and Elaine, and welcome!

Yet even as Conflict Revolution's platform widens and the blog expands, we can't forget where we came from.  Steve and I have most recently been working on a couple of (mostly) friendly exchanges on topics ranging from inheritance taxes to regulatory burdens, Republican obstruction, and tacky campaign fundraising gimmicks.  Sexy!  But if you're craving some email debate and you just can't wait, see our most recent discussion on plastic bags and global warming.  It's... great.

Now, that promised substantive post. 

[Not-so] Love Lockdown, Prologue (1/4): Do Convicted Criminals dream the American dream?

Do convicted criminals dream the American dream?

Sure they do - Just look at freshly sentenced criminals Rajat Gupta (former Goldman board member), R. Allen Stanford (sentenced to 110 years in prison without parole), and of course Grandaddy Ponzi himself, Bernie Madoff. Hell, these guys even lived the American dream, with its fast cars, deep pockets, luxury yachts and diamonds for the ladies in life.

Now, these riches-to-rags storybook characters are scheduled to rot in a Federal penitentiary for the rest of their lives, leaving exponentially more finances and possibly life plans ruined in their wake. All this justice, of course, conducted in order to dissuade other current or would-be criminals from acting...in exactly the only way they know of how to get to the American dream - Get Rich or Die/Go to Jail Trying.

50 Cent was on to something

A rather paradoxical message, given the global rash of government-bank bailouts and the continued reliance on the instruments (i.e. financial markets) of who-dares-wins capitalism. But enough of this suddenly-fashionable bashing of fallen financial idols. It seems like just yesterday when activist judges, juries, and members of the media started defending the rights of convicted rapists, murderers, gang-bangers and the assorted denizens of American death row - new and vindicating/damning DNA evidence notwithstanding - so I'm sure public opinion will grow weary of its latest social witch-hunt sooner or later, and that District Attorneys/Federal Prosecutors will likewise find some other scapegoats upon which to build their reputations on the docket. Sooner or later, our generation's To Kill a Mockingbird of the early 21st century will be published, this time admonishing the veritable inquisition of financial criminals during a time of long-term recession and entrenched unemployment.

Yet even in a time of economic downturn, when Wall Street becomes an easy target of Main Street's wrath, no one seems to be pissing on how the wildly-popular (and mostly plastic) Kardashians, the train-wreck-of-an-excuse-for-a-man Charlie Sheens, or the well-paid, drug-snorting Lindsay Blohan-type celebrities don't pay "their fair share" of American taxes. Plus Justin Bieber- he's CANADIAN!! Where is that money going??

oh...nevermind.

What compelled me to finally write original content for the blog again - and a three-part series, at that - was a combination of many factors, the premier of which was my roommate's comment that, "no offense, but I think the American Dream is more of a Dream than a Reality."

State of the Economy: Part II

Over the past several weeks, the writers of Conflict Revolution have been exchanging a series of emails on the state of the US economy.  This is Part II of an ongoing debate that seems to have some serious legs - see where it takes us, and share your own thoughts, below:

Also see: State of the Economy: Part I

Matt: Stephen, you've conceded that the stimulus created some jobs.  Are you accepting it as an Obama accomplishment?

Stephen: I’m not going to argue that spending does nothing, that’s a bit absurd. But let’s look at your math. The average of 3.6M, 1.97M, 2.1M and 1.5M is definitely not 3.9M… my numbers say its 2.29M – which I’ll still give you is significant. But, like I said above, all of these studies are done on economic models which basically assume that the inputs always work (which is how we get the saved number – the group is saying it should give us this, so if they didn’t really exist then they must just be saved jobs). So at best, we can say that these numbers are fuzzy; econometric models, which also have problems, think it was either entirely useless or helped about 2M jobs.  If your point was that the recession could have been worse, I’ll concede you the point. However, what I see as the real issue is effectiveness of the stimulus and if it’s actually helping to “stimulate” the economy. It seems to me like it was more of a Temprapetic bed than a Viagra.

Matt: On those numbers, you took the low baselines for all the analyses and I took the median, which seems fairer, and yields 3.9 million jobs created between 2009 and 2011.  Even if it was your number, I thought any job created was a good thing?  Either way, I'm not arguing that stimulus should fuel our economy forever.  In fact, if you were actually going to make an honest argument, you would acknowledge that the stimulus was only through 2010.  But the fact is, where else do you expect demand to come from in an economy where everyone is losing their job?  Give me a better answer than government stepping in to help out and maybe I'll consider it.

Email Debate: State of the Economy, Part I

It's election season, and one guy is running for re-election, which means this isn't the first, and will likely be far from the last time you read the words, "are you better off than you were four years ago?"  Still, as amateur members of the American punditocracy, Stephen and I could not suppress the urge to fire the first shots.  Here's Conflict Revolution on the State of the Economy (Part I):

Stephen: Hey Matt, do you think the economy is better today than it was 4 years ago?

Matt: Well, considering that in late April 2008 the global financial system was about four months away from near collapse, the auto industry was about to die, and American households were as debt-saddled and overleveraged as ever... yes, yes I do.  State your claim to the contrary. 

Stephen: Let's start with GDP, since that's the only thing that has really gone up. GDP has risen by an unimpressive $235.6B, which is a total of 1.8% or 0.4% annually. Let's ignore the fact that people have been expecting the US economy to take off now for 3 years (I won't say it has no chance this year, just that its a heavy underdog). Now, I'm sure you are familiar with how GDP is calculated, GDP = C+I+G+(X-M). That G piece (government) has increased by 681.2B. So we can see where the new growth is coming from right? And after three years, it's still unimpressive. At what point do we say this is the problem and not the solution? (But let's try to stay off that for now, that's an entirely different debate)

Unemployment - the unemployment rate is at 8.1%, up from 5%. But that probably doesn't tell the whole story since labor force participation is constantly declining... look at the U-6 rate (unemployed/underemployed/"marginally attached workers" aka people who dropped out of the labor force but want a job) and that's up to 14.5% from 9.2%.  Total payrolls are down 5.9% as well.

Should we get into household income or housing? They are both down, housing by as much as 50%. Or how about the S&P 500, which is generally used a gauge of American business performance? Its down about 10% still from its 2007 highs and just about equal with its 2008 high. Oh and did I mention that QE1, 2 and Operation Twist have managed to push the money supply into stupid levels? Or that inflation has increased by 7% since Obama took office (I understand these is totally normally inflation rates, but it puts into perspective how bad things are since NOTHING else is increasing so rapidly).

Steve's Jobs: Open Positions at the Council on Foreign Relations

Looking for a great job in international affairs research and journalism?

The Council on Foreign Relations, publishers of the venerable Foreign Affairs magazine, is hiring for multiple positions in its New York and D.C. offices:

Over the summer, we at CR will be putting together a calendar of events, career fairs, speeches, and more in the D.C. area for the convenience of our readers. This "District Events Calendar" will be available only to readers who take the effort to "Like" our site on Facebook, or follow us on Twitter. In the meantime, we'll be posting D.C.-area job openings that we feel our readers would be very interested in, so please be sure to visit us early and often!