Monday, July 2, 2012

Blowouts and Brownouts - Happy Monday!

Happy Monday... if only you had a restful weekend rather than one wracked by thunder, lightning, and gale-force winds. The weekend-long power outages in NoVa-Arlington and some parts of DC ranged anywhere from annoying to hazardous as thermometers continued to rise throughout the region. 

Yet in many parts of the world, constant and reliable electrical power is a luxury, if not downright impossible to obtain. Here, Nadia explains the concept and toils of  power "loadshedding:" A practice common in urban areas of many developing countries, including Pakistan and Iraq, and what Pakistan intends to do to solve its energy crisis (Hint: Israel would be pissed)

Pipelines
By Nadia Sheikh

Electricity shortages are one of Pakistan’s biggest vices. In its cities, loadshedding can occur anywhere from 6-10 hours a day; in the rural areas, it’s 10-12 hours at the least.  With the summer heat,  loadshedding only further intensifies. Recent protests in Khairpur and Lahore illustrate the level of frustrations Pakistanis have with their elected officials, who do not share the burden, and cannot relate to the impact on productivity, output, and the psyches of their constituents.

With these problems at hand, the Pakistani government has looked outward for solutions for years, recognizing the need for external sources of gas and energy as opposed to building up infrastructure within the country.

In particular,  Pakistan has gravitated toward the idea, the notion of  building pipelines of gas -- one with Iran,  known as Iran-Pakistan Peace Pipeline, much to the chagrin of the Americans; the other, with Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, & India (TAPI), which is hailed as a symbol of regional cooperation.­­. Whether these projects are feasible in  development and implementation, it is hard to say.

In its original conception, in the early 1990s, the  first pipeline would run between Pakistan, Iran, and later on, India.  By 1995, the MOU was signed by the three countries, and considered a doable project by some. By 2008, India had pulled out of the project and entered into a deal with the U.S. Throughout the IPPP’s trajectory, its progress has been remarkably stagnant.

Recently, Arsla Jawaid wrote a great piece in Foreign Policy, explaining the various nuances of the IPPP project and challenges ahead.  The IPPP is seen as one possible antidote to Pakistan’s energy crisis, because it brings in a new energy source. Additionally, the pipeline project seems like a huge affront to the U.S., which views Iran as a threat in the region and would like to isolate it for its nuclear program.

Iran and Pakistan signed an agreement in 2010, with an estimated cost of $1.6 billion to start from southern Iran and going through to Balochistan. Project construction began in 2011 with an expected completion date of December 2014. Both sides see it an investment – Iran  can sell its gas, and as Jawaid rightly points out, Pakistan gets an  alternative solution.

On the other hand, the prospects for the TAPI pipeline are much better.  Just a few weeks ago,  Pakistan and India's state-operated energy companies signed an agreement with Turkmenistan's Turkmenganz in the first steps toward the pipeline development.  Turkmen officials stated that the 1800 kilometres long pipeline could carry 33 billion cubic metres a year to India, Afghanistan and Pakistan.  It won’t become operational, however, until 2018.

Sources:
  • http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/05/21/nato_summit_solidifies_plan_for_winding_down_afghan_war
  • http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/04/05/drilling_down_on_the_iran_pakistan_pipeline
  • http://www.brecorder.com/br-research/28:oil-and-gas/2531:tapi-still-a-long-long-way-to-go/?date=2012-05-25
  • http://tribune.com.pk/story/383288/tapi-pipeline-indian-and-pakistani-firms-sign-gas-purchase-contract/
  • http://dawn.com/2012/04/27/despite-us-pressure-pakistan-seeks-bids-for-iran-gas-pipeline/

Nadia Sheikh is a 2009 Georgetown grad who just finished her Master’s in International Relations at the London School of Economics. You can find more of Nadia’s writings at nadiainpakistan.blogspot.com, or follow her on Twitter (@sheikhandbake).

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